A Look Ahead: Fresh Ideas For 2026

Last week, we looked back at 2025. This week, we look ahead to 2026. The annual tradition of making predictions for the coming year has become one of my favorite newsletters to write.

• Over the last few days, I’ve consumed an enormous amount of information about the trends playing out in the wider world. In this newsletter, I’m going to distill what seems to be the most relevant and apply those trends to the work of church renewal.

Seven predictions for 2026

1. AI will affect work and wealth profoundly

• Artificial intelligence will replace many middle-class roles in communication, analytics, coding, and administrative work. You may find yourself walking alongside many young congregants who have lost their jobs or struggle to find one for the first time — even as the cost of living presses them from the other side.
• Meanwhile, in the upper class, many have become wealthy from their investments in tech companies. But economist Brent Goldfarb warns that AI may be a bubble just waiting to burst. Any correction or crash will be extremely painful and could affect your top donors’ giving in 2026. With the potential large impact to your budget, do you have a plan?

2. Hunger for raw authenticity will grow

• AI-generated photos and videos have gone from laughably bad to nearly indistinguishable from reality. Still, they have “tells” — mainly that they often feel too perfect. All the rough edges have been smoothed out, and people don’t like it.
• After a year of synthetic polish, people are hungry for the rawness of real life. Think wabi-sabi, the Japanese aesthetic that finds beauty in imperfection. Does this mean you should abandon excellence? No! But it does mean you should pair excellence with authenticity. Real stories. Real faces. Real testimony. Real people being honest about real life!

3. Loneliness will drive digital detox and in-person connection

• Experiments with phone-free environments keep producing a similar result: when smartphones go away, people feel relieved… and happier! Phone restrictions and age-gating conversations are becoming more common, and reducing screen time has become a top New Year’s resolution.
• This year could be a tipping point, as people connect the dots between nonstop scrolling and rising anxiety. We should expect a rebound in hunger for in-person connection. The church is uniquely positioned here — not by being trendy, but by fostering real relationships through groups, one-on-one mentoring, shared meals, and chances to serve side-by-side with others.

4. Demographics will shift in surprising ways

• In many places, pastors are reporting a return of young men to church. And in a growing number of churches, Gen Z and Millennials are becoming the new “core” of attendance and volunteering (even as older adults remain highly religious but sometimes less engaged week-to-week). Simultaneously, research is continuing to challenge our assumptions about family structure. A new Barna study found that the majority of people in America are not married.
• What does all this mean? You are not preaching to the same community you were five years ago! Don’t assume everyone is married with kids, or that this is their goal in life. Do you have clear next steps for singles, single parents, and blended families? Will they feel welcomed, or will they be treated like outsiders who are “less than”?

5. In a turbulent time, people will seek timeless truth

• The geopolitical stage is set for even more turbulence in the year ahead, and that can be incredibly scary. Even here inside our own country, political violence is on the rise, and divisions within and between parties are deepening every day. When you add AI to the mix, it gets even worse. Images can be faked, and voices can be cloned. Trust erodes, and skepticism grows.
• In that environment, people will be eager for truth that never changes. Churches must be eager to simultaneously rise above politics while not shying away from speaking to the issues on everyone’s mind.

6. Spiritual curiosity will continue to rise

• Church consultant Thom Rainer recently reported seeing an increase in prayer requests. He says this is a sign of spiritual hunger and a willingness to trust the church with burdens again.
• Our neighbors are more open to receiving an invitation or having a spiritual conversation than we might expect. Are you equipping your people to share their stories and start spiritual conversations? Are you creating low-pressure on-ramps that might help a curious neighbor take a first step (service projects, Alpha-style spaces, parenting nights, Q&A nights, grief support, etc.)?

7. Staffing models will continue to evolve

• As the median age of pastors rises and fewer leaders enter the pipeline, churches and denominations will have to get even more proactive and creative in thinking about developing leaders. At the same time, the median size of churches is shrinking, which means fewer congregations will be able to sustain a traditional full-time compensation model.
• In response, we will see more church mergers and adoptions, more co-vocational pastors, and more multi-role teams. And we’ll have to rediscover the power of lay leadership, not as a backup plan, but as a biblical strength!

As is true every year, flexibility will be rewarded. We have a saying at my church that has become one of our staff’s core values: “Happy are the flexible, for when they are stretched, they bend and don’t break.”

• If you would like help thinking through how these trends might affect your church’s staffing, discipleship, outreach, and overall strategy, one of our consultants would love to walk alongside you!