A Look Ahead at the Headwinds of 2025

Happy New Year, and welcome to 2025! To help your church thrive, it is important to keep an eye out for emerging opportunities and challenges. What better time to think about these trends than at the start of a new year!

I like to think of it like checking a weather forecast so you can dress appropriately and pack an umbrella! As we head into 2025, let’s think together about what weather we’ll face and what we’ll need to pack!

Ten Emerging Trends in Church Renewal

The end of the great reshuffling will end easy growth

After the Covid pandemic, Christians gradually began returning to church, but they did not necessarily return to the same church, as they took the opportunity to find a better fit.
This led to dramatic growth in some churches and decline in others. For those who are growing, the period of easy growth may be about to end as the reshuffling ends.

Wise churches will focus on strategic growth

As mentioned above, some churches have enjoyed great momentum over the past few years, even apart from an intentional effort to grow. These churches will be at risk of plateau and decline if they do not shift from momentum growth toward strategic growth.
The hard work of forming a strategy involves finding the intersection of your church’s unique giftedness with your community’s unique needs. It also involves cultivating a heart for the lost.

Long- term declines were interrupted but will resume

As people have come back to church post-Covid, the trend line for attendance, which had been declining, showed a period of reversal. Maybe your church is one that has seen year-over-year gains in worship attendance, giving, and volunteerism.
Seeing year-over-year gains is encouraging, but we expect this temporary upswing will begin to trail off as the wave of people returning to church ends. The long-term pattern of decline in the American church will most likely resume and perhaps even pick up speed.

Church Closures will outpace openings

For many years, more churches have closed than new ones have opened, and there is no reason to expect this trend to change in 2025. In fact, Thom Rainer says he expects 15,000 churches to close in a single year for the first time ever.
For this reason, church planting is a crucial activity we each should support in some way this year. Further, statistics show that church plants are more nimble and typically more evangelistic as well!

Bivocational pastors will become more common

As the size of church attendance and budgets decrease, an additional 15,000 churches will ask their pastors to work within part-time hours. Many pastors will need to explore bi-vocational ministry for the first time in 2025.
Alternatively, churches could (and I would argue should) explore other options such as merging with other congregations or combining ministries in collaborative ways. These options would allow for more robust and sustainable ministries.

Leader training will take centerstage

Because of aging clergy, fewer students entering ministry training, and the fact that 33 percent of current pastors are contemplating quitting full-time ministry, a leadership crisis is looming. And with churches now waiting an average of 18 months to find a pastor, many say the crisis is already here.
To address this great need and to facilitate church planting, churches must begin to prioritize the task of training future leaders. Further, they must be willing to accept how different that process may look in the future.

Mental health will continue to decline

For the first time, the United States did not appear in the list of the top 20 happiest countries in the world, according to the World Happiness Report. Pastors will have to address loneliness, depression, anxiety, and other issues from the pulpit more frequently.
Pastors will also have to address these issues in their own lives. Barna found that only 21 percent of pastors age 45 and above report that they are flourishing in their well-being. Worse still? That number falls to 7 percent for those below age 45. In the past year, 18 percent of pastors contemplated suicide or self-harm.
Every pastor needs a mentor, and we would love to offer that support for you if you need it!

Distrust of religious leaders will grow

We are in the middle of a trust crisis. In the U.S., people say they do not trust the media, members of Congress, the Supreme Court, the school system, health insurance companies, etc.
Distrust of authority is making it harder and harder to lead. Pastors will continue to fight an uphill battle to gain the trust it takes to lead effectively and to change lives.

Dissatisfaction with the Status Quo will grow

Voters said no to the status quo in more than 60 countries, which was disastrous for incumbent parties. Many of those in power lost their power this year, and that trend will continue. Although the problems and solutions are nuanced, people were crystal clear about their one desire: above all, they wanted change.
This may be a helpful sentiment to bring into the work of church renewal, where motivating people to consider change is often one of the most difficult tasks. A certain level of dissatisfaction with the status quo is just what your church may need!

Technology, excellence, and authenticity will matter

As churches are asked to do more with less, technology will help fill the gap. Artificial intelligence can provide pastors with a brainstorming partner, a research assistant, a proofreader, a video editor, a study guide creator, a graphic designer, and more!
Alongside expectations of excellence, people will also increasingly expect authenticity. Pastors who never look up from their notes will have a harder time connecting than ever before. Personal connections and vulnerability are key ingredients for any good sermon today.

Many of these trend lines may seem negative, but an even stronger trend line exists that we must keep in front of us. That is the absolutely unwavering faithfulness of God and his never-failing promise to build his church (Matthew 16:18). Even as you prepare to meet the headwinds of 2025 head-on, rest in the assurance that God has never failed you yet, and he won’t start now!

I’d love to hear your perspective on 2025 too! Just hit reply and let us know what trends you see emerging!